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Munderloh, H.. Costs of sea-level rise under different climatic and socio-economic scenarios: an application of the DIVA model. In: Schwarzer, K., Schrottke, K., Stattegger, K. (eds.). From Brazil to Thailand - New Results in Coastal Research. Coastline Reports (16), pp. 101-103. EUCC - Die Küsten Union Deutschland e.V., Rostock, 2010.

Zusammenfassung: The world’s coastal zones are due to a high population and a high concentration on material assets among the most vulnerable areas in the world to a, through climate change altered, sea-level rise. To better protect these potential endangered areas vulnerability assessments are necessary to evaluate the potential risks, impacts and costs of climate change. In this work the DIVA model version 2.0.2 was applied to indentify the potential costs of sea-level rise under different climatic and socio-economic scenarios. The DIVA runs were made for Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom with the IPCC SRES scenarios A1FI, A2 and B2. The results outline the need for adaptation under all three scenarios with highest values in the A1FI and the lowest in the B2 scenario. They clearly show that the costs will rapidly increase at least after 2070 without adaptation. The results also outline the huge benefit of proactive adaptation compared with reactive adaptation. Even if the DIVA model is a global model the results are in a logical context to the physical and socio-economic conditions of the countries and scenarios applied and provide useful insights on the vulnerability for long-term coastal management even on smaller scales.
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