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Wittig, S., Kraft, D., Meyerdirks, J., Schirmer, M.. Risikobewertung ökologischer Systeme an der deutschen Nordseeküste im Klimawandel. In: Schernewski, G., Dolch, T. (eds.). Geographie der Meere und Küsten. Coastline Reports (1), pp. 127-135. 2004.

Zusammenfassung:

Within the interdisciplinary research project “Climate Change and Preventive Risk and Coastal Protection Management on the German North Sea Coast” (KRIM) the subproject “Climate Change and Coastal Ecology” examines the ecological aspects of the processes that take place in the coastal landscape. The analysis of the ecological systems of the fore- and hinterland confirmed  that the zoning of the biotope types within the salt marsh is determined mainly by hydrology and the associated morphodynamics (system analysis). Via these impact paths it is possible to determine climate change sensitivities for individual biotope types and for landscape sectors (sensitivity analysis). Analysis of how different users esteem these ecological systems has shown a strong competition between the user perspectives “coastal protection” and “nature protection” within the ecological properties of the foreland (function analysis). Climate-induced changes in the structure, functionality and productivity of the ecosystems and the resulting restrictions for the users mentioned could be assessed in a risk analysis. Therefore, our definition of an “ecological risk” use anthropocentric yardsticks. The loss of requirements on ecological properties from the view of the user perspective “coastal protection” was integrated to a space-oriented value (function-value “coastal protection”). This enables the calculation and comparison of the risk-potential of different development scenarios of sea level rise and coastal protection variants, which are conceivable in the future.

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