Scheibe, R.. Aspekte der zukünftigen Entwicklung der touristischen Angebotspalette des Oder-Haff-Gebietes unter dem Eindruck natürlicher und gesellschaftlicher Veränderungen. In: Schernewski, G., Janßen, H., Schumacher, S. (eds.). Coastal Change in the southern Baltic Sea Region. Coastline Reports (12), pp. 61-72. EUCC - The Coastal Union, Leiden, 2009.

Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors of the Odra Lagoon Region and has been affiliated in the Integrated Coastal Zone Management project (ICZM-Oder) therefore. Due to the iterative character of ICZM the following article describes actual changes in the tourism infrastructure and evaluates the actual development and current tourism planning concerning the aims of ICZM (sustainable development and participation). Additionally, the article covers aspects of the climate change and long-term socio-economic trends, too. After the stagnation period in 2004 tourism shows a moderate growth (e.g. numbers of overnight stays) again. The stockting of infrastructure shows several changes in all sectors of tourism. Cultural tourism shows positive trends (quality and quantity of events with effects to extend the tourism season), but also problems (marketing of the existing museums). Current problems of the water tourism are the the accessibility of several ports and marinas, the decline of the recreational navigation, and the limiting natural factors for trend sports. In general, the relationship between tourism and effects of climate change is ambivalent. The higher temperatures and the longer season will support the bathing tourism, but the warmer water of the Baltic Sea contains risks like algae blooms and pathogenic germs. Thus, there is a need of further monitoring. The rising sea level brings about new risks of coastal erosion and loss of beaches. Several water sports like boating and canoeing will benefit from climate change, too. Anyhow, the expected problems in water transparency and biodiversity limit the attractiveness for scuba diving and fishing. Nature tourism could be influenced by the loss of attractive ecosystems (wetlands, breeding places) and other ecological changes. The risk of forest fire in the pine forests could limit activities like hiking and cycling. The manifold effects of the climate change force the long term planning in all economic sectors. Tourism will be influenced by socio-economic changes, too. While the recreational industry profits from well-off and mobile retirees with a high demand after wellness and culture currently, the long term future will bring about a sinking demand after recreational service due to the old age poverty and the decreasing spare time of the employed. The planning for the future development of the tourism in the Odra Lagoon Region meets the requirements after sustainable development generally. Efforts of nature conservation are accepted and supported by most of the local stakeholders and the tourists. Although, there are current problems in the social and economic aspects evident: Low salaries and the seasonality in the tourism sector cause a continuing trend of migration of young population. The aims of ICZM are accepted as far as possible in the Odra Lagoon Region. Hence, the chance to avoid conflicts by using ICZM instruments in addition to licensing procedures is understood and used at all.